Is It Time For the Caps to Fire George McPhee?

Is a shake-up necessary in DC to get the Washington Capitals back on the right track? In a city where panic buttons are pushed after the first quarter of the Redskins season opener and coaches in the major sports hold shorter tenures than one term by the President of the United States the Caps are looking like a team that will be in need of a change to possibly get the team in gear. I don't usually write a team off from making the playoffs until certain points of the season.  For the Wizards, I can normally get a feeling 5 games into the season, the Nationals need to have a winning record by the trade deadline and the Redskins need to show me something by Week 8. The Caps however can rarely be written off because when they seem to be done, that's when they go on their run....until the playoffs then you can write them off.

Over the past five years I've been vocal  in my belief that the Caps window of opportunity to be a Stanley Cup contender was closing within the past two seasons. The team still has the talent to win and be a perennial playoff contender but at some point the current crop of talent would need to be broken up. As a fan its hard for me to want any member of the team gone, I'd be okay with some, such as John Erskine, being healthy scratches however. However also as a fan, I want to see this team achieve its maximum potential and for the past few years they haven't done that and while some of that falls on the players it also falls on management.

I believe many of the players have become complacent due to the success they've had finishing atop the Southeast Division for so long, even making a late season rally to squeak their way into a Top 3 spot in the playoffs last season. Once in the playoffs though the team, even when they had the best record in the NHL a few seasons back, looks over matched. Either opponents tighten up their defensive approach or the team gets away, ever so slightly, from what got them their success and tighten up a bit too much. Of course that late in the year injuries also play a role in many of the team's shortcomings but that happens to all teams so that excuse holds little water.

Over the past six seasons the team has made the playoffs every time, under three different coaches, 5 different goalies starting playoff games (Huet, Theodore, Varlamov, Neuvirth, and Holtby) and the many of the same forwards and defensemen while making a roster tweak at the trade deadline deal to upgrade a roster flaw. In the end its never just enough and the same issues come up, Ovechkin gets shutdown by the opponents, other players don't step up, mental errors pop up more, and a few unlucky bounces off of Caps players end up behind their own goalie (I'll avoid the yearly goalie interference calls that NEVER go in the Caps favor nor get called the same way twice). One other constant over the six seasons, and every year since 1997, is General Manager George McPhee.

Before I touch on GMGM lets look at how things have gone for the Caps since the start of the 2011-12 season. The team began the season with an amazing 7-0 start only to fall on hard times fast and by the end of November the team had fired head coach Bruce Boudreau. As the struggles mounted his coaching philosophy was called into question, as was his inability to get players to change or adapt come the playoffs and through this struggle. Boudreau had actually gotten the team to play differently in the playoffs the season prior but at the expense of their offense and it once again lead to an early exit. The fans and many of the players loved Boudreau but it appeared like he had lost the team, especially franchise player Alex Ovechkin. It was a shame because Boudreau held the best winning percentage in Caps history and while his offensive coaching style could be compared a bit to the NBA's Mike D'Antoni (circa Phoenix Suns) the difference was his style actually produced championships (in the US). When Boudreau was the coach of the Caps AHL affiliate, the Hershey Bears, he lead them to the 2006 Calder Cup championship and to the finals again in 2007. After being fired by the Caps Boudreau landed in Anaheim where he took over a struggling Ducks team (6-20-6) that went on to accumulate 38 points in its next 24 games before struggling and eventually missing the playoffs. During the 12-13 season the Ducks finished 30-12-6 and won the Pacific division but were eliminated by the 7th seed Detroit Red Wings. Currently the Ducks are 35-8-5 under Boudreau, the best record in the NHL.

Boudreau had been replaced by former Caps great Dale Hunter who was more of a defensive minded coach and maybe a tad less vocal than Boudreau when it came to ripping into the players. Hunter saw success in the OHL, winning one championship. Under Hunter's guidance the Caps got back on track and rallied to finish 2nd in the Southeast, 2 points behind Florida for 1st, and 7th in the Eastern Conference.  They got their with mainly Tomas Vokoun and Michal Neuvirth in net but when the playoffs came they turned to rookie goalie Braden Holtby. The Caps went to the second round of the playoffs before losing in 7 games to the New York Rangers and after the series Hunter stepped down. In all honesty he didn't seem to fit well with the team that had been assembled but the team did play better defensively under him. 

After Hunter left, the Caps hired another former Cap Adam Oates. Unlike the previous two coaches, Oates isn't a yeller and screamer, instead he prefers to teach the players the errors of their ways. Under Oates the Caps scored the most power play goals and had the highest power play conversion percentage of all teams in the 12/13 season. Once again the Caps needed a strong late season rally to make a playoff push before being eliminated from the playoffs in the first round, again by the Rangers. Holtby also firmly unseated Neuvirth as the team's #1 goalie. This season the Caps had managed to achieve the best record in the Metropolitan division, for about an hour, and the top Power Play and Penalty Kill in the NHL but since that time in late Novemeber the team has been average, at best and currently have the 5th most points in the East, but are only 5 points from being in 13th place so there is little room for error over the next few weeks before the break for the Olympics.

Once again this year there is goalie controversy. It happened with Boudreau (Kolzig/Huet, Theodore/Varlamov, Varlamov/Neuvirth, Vokun/Neuvirth) and Hunter (Vokun/Neuvirth/Holtby) and now with Oates (Holtby/Neuvirth, Holtby/Neuvirth/Grubauer). While its nice to have an abundance of young talent in net, they also need to be given regular starts. Since Kolzig left, the team seems to find a possible franchise goalie only to have him replaced by the next young glove that goes through a hot stretch. Neuvirth lost his spot as the back-up (he'd prefer starter) when he stepped on a puck during pregame warm-ups which cause the team to call up Grubauer. Holtby was unseated by Grubauer after a couple bad games and seems to not be able to stop much of anything. After getting his first start in I think 6 weeks Neuvy had a great game on Friday only to end up a healthy scratch on Sunday.

Another problem is line chemistry. All three coaches have been guilty of not sticking with their lines for more than a few games. If players can't build chemistry together its only going to make it harder for the team to find that winning formula. Add to it each coach has a player that ends up in the doghouse and eventually wants to be traded and it makes for a bad atmosphere. Currently the Caps have 3 players that requested to be traded, Martin Erat, Dmitri Orlov and Neuvy. I don't see Orlov going anywhere, in fact I think he's played himself into the Top 6 defensemen rotation. Neuvy could be a nice trade chip while Erat needs to just be dumped.

And that is what brings me to McPhee. GMGM used to be able to have a Midas touch when it came to trades and free agency. Always able to find that right plug to fix a leaking ship. However when he traded promising prospect Filip Forsberg for veteran Erat it seemed like a move made just to make a move rather than one that would help now and in the future. Forsberg was amazing in international play while Erat toiled away in Nashville. Since coming to DC he's been a scratch or seen limited ice time, many times on the 4th line and his trade value is less than a bag of pucks. This trade screamed of they type the Bullets/Wizards would make in the 90s (Chris Webber for Mitch Richmond or Rasheed Wallace for Rod Strickland and Harvey Grant..actually liked Strickland so not too bad). That Erat trade is where GMGM lost me. I hated but understood the trade of Bondra (my favorite Cap of all-time) and was disappointed when he traded Dave Steckel and Chris Bourque but those moves either made the team better or were players that weren't necessarily in the team's long term future. GMGM has done a great job with being able to skirt the salary cap but it may be time for a change of the puppet master because the less things change, the more they stay the same.

By no means am I saying the season is over. I don't even know if a major personnel change is needed but mental changes are. I'd scratch Erskine except when the Caps play physical teams. I'd think about seeing what Mike Green looks like as a winger, though that means teaching him to also play in front of the net, and rotate Laich as a defenseman since he's filled in their previously but I don't know if his groin can handle it. At the very least don't let Green have the puck coming out of the defensive zone. Oates and GMGM need to find a way to make the team stronger mentally so as to not give up goals immediately following a Caps goal, they need to quit taking dumb penalties, figure out how to count so as to stop getting hit with, or luckily not getting called for, too many men on the ice and the team needs to avoid the delay of game (over the glass) penalty as much as possible. Of course its easy to say that from behind a computer and while watching the game from the outside but these are the things I think the team needs to focus on most as the latter ones have plagued the team for years. 

I'm sure there are other things that can be pointed to, mainly using sabermetrics like Corsi and numbers like that but I just don't understand them. I love numbers and understand the baseball ones but I haven't spent enough time or don't care to investigate the hockey ones yet because I fear it'll take away from part of the game I've come to love. I prefer to watch a game where guys hit, score, fight and make great saves without trying to figure out what players match-up best and where. That's the coaches job.

What the Hell is Wrong with the Capitals?

Once the NHL lockout ended everyone knew it wouldn't be easy out of the gate for the Washington Capitals. While the majority of their players were returning from the prior season many of the players hadn't played in an actual professional game since last May. Add to it that the team was going to have 6 days before the season started to gain chemistry with their lines and learn and adjust to their 3rd Head Coach and offensive and defensive scheme in 14 months and one had to figure the team would need some time to adjust to everything while having to play games every other night.

We are now two weeks and 7 games into the 48 game season and Washington is a cellar dweller at a lackluster 1-5-1. Scoring has been hard to come by for the team as has the ability to avoid committing penalties. In turn the Capitals end up with no energy by the end of the game which has lead to consecutive late game losses on their two game road trip to Canada.

The season started sluggish with an ugly loss to Tampa Bay in which the team gave up 6 goals which primarily came at the fault of poor defensive positioning, lazy neutral zone turnovers, and a failure to kill penalties. Six games later that still seems to be the case. The Caps dropped their home opener in similar but even uglier fashion against Winnipeg and failed to set up any type of offensive strategy against Montreal. As if the team's performance wasn't bad enough the usually raucous Verizon Center crowd was not only dead but half empty by the start of the 3rd period of the Montreal game. In the games to follow the Capitals fell behind New Jersey 2-0 before mounting a valiant comeback in the final 5 minutes thanks to some power play execution, but ultimately losing with under a minute to go in overtime. The team's ability to battle back however left fans optimistic. The team no longer gives fans the impression that they can come back when down a goal let alone two or three goals but in the New Jersey game they strung together a solid 10 minutes to end the game against the Devils and then put forth a solid 40+ minutes against Buffalo which lead to the team's first win of the season. The Caps came out pretty strong against Ottawa with a solid first 40 minutes and a 2-0 lead before the wheels fell off and the team allowed the Senators to score 1 in the 2nd and 2 in the 3rd. Against Toronto the Caps held again held a 2-1 lead heading into the 3rd period, this despite 8 Toronto power plays in the first 40 minutes, before ultimately falling 3-2, the 4th straight game with a 3-2 final.   


Entering the Ottawa game the Caps were 94-0-9 when leading after two between February 24, 2009 and Tuesday,  now they've lost 2 straight. The refs definitely got to the Caps in the team's first two games especially the first home game where Mike Ribiero was high-sticked twice but no penalty was called and yet he got hit with an unsportsmanlike conduct for chirping at the refs. Last night the eight penalties just gassed the Caps by the time the 3rd period came around and they had nothing left in the tank, they couldn't skate with the Leafs and they couldn't muster a shot on the Leafs goalie for over 10 minutes in the final period.

Add to it the players that played during the lockout, Ovechkin, Backstrom, Perreault, Johansson, and Holtby among them, have done nothing of use this season. Ovechkin has two goals, both on the power play, Backstrom has 4 assists, Perreault and MoJo spend more time in the dog house than they do on the ice and Holtby has lost his spot to Michal Neuvirth. On the flip side Joel Ward leads the team in goals and will soon eclipse last year's total, Matt Hendricks has played hard and tough, Ribiero has shown flashes, Joey Crabb has been a huge surprise and the most consistent player, Neuvirth has kept the team in most of the games he's started, and on defense "the Lumberjack" John Erskine has been blocking shots, hitting players...he rocked Phil Kessel last night, and even scored a goal on a muffin shot but has also blasted some beauties on net. The rest of the team has been mediocre (Mike Green) to unfortunate (John Carlson who has been on the ice for most of the goals for and against).

Adam Oates isn't a coach that's going to motivate his players. He feels they have a job to do, they know it, and they need to do it. They're trying the experiment of Alex Ovechkin on the right wing, it isn't working. Until Ovechkin learns to evolve and adapt to the fact that the NHL opponents know he's going to use the same stupid moves as he enters the offensive zone he's not going to be the Ovechkin of old, in fact with the gray showing in his hair he's just becoming old Ovechkin. I read he did relatively well in the KHL, I guess teams over there don't watch game film and plan for facing him or he's such a superstar over there they let him do his stuff because they're in awe of him. Add to it the detractors of Ovi will be willing to point to the fact that his offensive production as well as Mike Green's have been on the decline since around the time a doctor was busted for steroids and records showed unnamed Capitals players were his clients. I don't believe they used them nor do I think it would have helped their performance but I do think Ovi may need to go to the Eye Doctors of Washington and get some Lasik since he seems to be missing the goal just a bit to the right...and why not its worked for Green right? Unfortunately unless Ovi is willing to grind and battle and even go so far as to stand in front of the net to try and deflect shots he's going to be stuck in his rut of shooting long shots with little traffic in front and an easy save for the goalie because he can't blow past defenses like he once did.

If the Caps are going to make a run they'll have to do it soon. The next two games are both at home but they're against Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and with Caps fans growing so frustrated with the team's effort, record and play and there being more and more empty seats with each passing home game I would expect the Flyers and Penguins fans to pack the Verizon Center..tho with the tighter security at Verizon I'd expect some of those opposing fans to not get in because of weapons. 
 
So that goes back to the original question...What's wrong with the Capitals? Its a little bit of everything. I've stated for years that their window of opportunity would be closing by the end of this season or next and it could be upon us or it could just be the whole lockout situation. What seems to be a lack of offensive strategy definitely isn't helping this team and not having the time to install it prior to the season, or in game because of penalties, makes the learning curve that much more difficult. Having Brooks Laich out with a hip injury certainly doesn't help since he's a leader on and off the ice and a grinder that gets dirty. In the end penalties is a main culprit. Too many 5-on-3 shorthanded situations; chirping at the refs, which seems to get called more against Washington than their opponents even though both sides do it and we'll see how strict the refs are when Pittsburgh comes this Sunday because Crosby constantly chirps at the refs especially against Washington; many of the penalties are careless some are even questionable and it gets even more confusing when the opponents do it and nothing gets called. The Caps can't control that they can only control their actions and they're going to have to learn from it, stay under control and do their best to put together solid efforts. If not the season will fully be lost. While the team has been outscored more in the 2nd period than any other they are dead in the 3rd so every opponent knows if you work the Caps hard the first two periods they'll have nothing left to finish and that will be the time to strike. Its essentially Dale Hunter hockey but with less energy in the final stanza. Is coaching the problem? Its too early to tell but I don't think so. These players are veterans and they shouldn't need a lecture. They've been there before and they're better than they're playing. They can talk a good game with they know what they're supposed to do and how they can make things easier but they aren't executing. A trade won't fix the problems but with George McPhee's fingerprints all over this team there is a chance that before the season is out Leonsis may decide that GMGM needs to be too.

Premature Fireworks This 4th of July Weekend at Kettler

So last we left the Free Agency period was upon us. July 1st was expected to be a busy day in the NHL and one that would be a necessary break for sports fans since the NBA was going the way of the NFL as the owners were locking out the players.

Eagerly awaiting the 12pm start for guys to be pursued by NHL clubs and sign with whatever team pitched them the most money what they wanted to hear. The big name in free agency was Brad Richards and I doubt any Capitals fan believed the Caps would consider making a move for him because of cost and not needing him on the top line, though talk about depth with him or Backstrom as your 2C...WOW.

Anyways the first deal to come down was one I had been saying needed to happen since the season ended. The Caps brought back Jeff Halpern on a one year deal to most likely be the 4th line center, replacing Boyd Gordon (good riddance) who went to Phoenix.

Next came word that Semyon Varlamov was not headed to the KHL but that the Caps had traded him to Colorado Avalanche. This was surprising since it seemed the Avs were on their way to bringing in Tomas Vokoun to be there #1 goalie but apparently the negotiations broke off. Now what was even more surprising is what the Caps got for Varly, a 1st Round pick next year AND a 2nd Round pick in either 2012 or 2013. That is highway robbery! What makes it more interesting is that had Varly been signed to an offer sheet and the Caps not matched it they would have probably gotten no more than a 2nd round pick as compensation, but the Avs GM felt the Caps would match any offer. We'll never know but what we do know is Varly stays in the US, gets $5.5 million over 2 years and the Caps could end up with a Top 5 pick in the draft next year. Now I have no doubt that Varly, if healthy, will steal quite a few games for the Avs and they are only a year removed from a fantastic showing but the fact that the team doesn't have a full-time goalie coach will hurt his learning progress and help the Capitals chances in a draft that is much better than the one that took place a week ago.

An hour and a half later we learn the Caps have signed Joel Ward, or as I said "Who the **** is Joel Ward?" and 37 year old defenseman Roman Hamrlik. After reading up on Ward and seeing some video I like the signing. I'm not sure if I like the 4 years on it but he's a grinder that will be around the net and can play the wing or center. While Hamrlik is older he's also a grizzled veteran and he's shut down Ovie while with Montreal so we won't have to worry about that anymore. Plus he turned down more money to play in DC so I can't be too upset.

Now the question becomes what happens with the defense? Mike Green, who made some interesting comments in a radio interview the other day, could be teamed with Hamrlik. Alzner is still unsigned but is expected to be back with his buddy John Carlson. Jeff Schultz, Dennis Wideman and Tom Poti currently are all under contract and will be looking at our D3 pairings. I read that John Erskine is a UFA, though I thought we had signed him during the season but if he is he could be back and Sean Collins was re-signed but is expected to be in Hershey.

WHEW...that was one hell of a Day 1 of free agency and the Caps did GREAT. They aren't the only ones though. The Panthers spent a lot of money, stupid Dale Tallon, on a bunch of second and third line guys and brought in 3 former Caps (Jose Theodore, starting goalie; Tomas Fleischmann, and Matt Bradley) which should make things interesting for the two teams.

Fast forward now to Day 2 and GMGM was not done with the roster moves. First the Caps bring back Chris Bourque, another request I've been making, who is expected to be at Hershey but could be an injury call-up and will no doubt be fighting to be on the 4th line during training camp.

Then late Saturday night comes word that the Caps had signed Vokoun, remember that name from earlier, for only $1.5 million for next year. Vokun is a great veteran goalie, despite his lack of playoff experience, who is familiar with the South East division having been in Florida for so long. So we get Vokoun for cheap and two high draft picks for Varly? Um...thank you.

The Caps still have a few more deals to make with free agents or via trade and need to build back up Hershey as their minor league affiliate is losing a lot of its core players.

I am a bit cautious as well because I've been down this road with our other sports teams where we win the "off-season championship" by signing the big name free agents or bringing in the expected right parts or making a blockbuster trade only to see nothing come of it. The goal is the Cup. That is always the goal and this team is now deeper than it has been and looking better. Now if there is any way to bring back David Steckel I'd really appreciate looking into that trade GMGM.